Speaker
Description
Climate change significantly impacts legume crop production systems, necessitating adaptive crop management strategies (1), especially in low-input agricolture. In response, our study utilizes the MONICA crop model (2), previously refined and validated with chickpea and lentil field trial data from Europe, to forecast the response of these crops to upcoming climate variations throughout Italy. Central to our research are two critical inquiries: firstly, how will anticipated shifts in chickpea and lentil phenology under future climate scenarios affect yields across Italy, and will these impacts be consistent across the peninsula or lead to changes in preferred cultivation areas? Secondly, we explore strategies that Italian farmers could adopt to accommodate these phenological changes, aiming to mitigate yield reductions and maintain stability over time, thereby optimizing legume production sustainably without reliance on external inputs.
The MONICA model, meticulously calibrated for commercial chickpea and lentil cultivars using detailed field trial data, simulates these crops effectively. Deployed across Italy in a 1 km² gridded format, the model offers a thorough analysis of how varying climate conditions, particularly drought and heat stresses, will impact crop phenology and yield.
Our study is organized around two separate 30-year simulation intervals: a historical baseline period from 1980 to 2010, and an intermediate future period from 2040 to 2070, examining two different IPCC emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). This methodology allows for an in-depth analysis of climate change's effects on the growth and development of chickpea and lentil, particularly examining shifts in the timing of flowering and maturity to assess phenological changes and the associated effect on grain formation.
Initial findings indicate significant changes in phenology , particularly affecting the timing of flowering and maturity, which in turn impacts the entire crop cycle. The study further explores adaptive strategies by evaluating several aspects such as yield, quality of yield, stability of yield, economic implications, water use efficiency, and soil fertility, focusing especially on nitrogen levels.
The study evaluates four distinct crop rotation and management strategies:
Benchmark: A conventional Italian 4-year rotation comprising legume (chickpea/lentil), wheat, maize, and barley.
Autumn Shift: The Benchmark rotation, but with chickpea and lentil sown in autumn.
Sustainable: Replacing maize in the Benchmark rotation with an N-fixing crop, resulting in a legume, wheat, legume, and barley sequence.
Sustainable Autumn Shift: The Sustainable rotation with autumn sowing for chickpea and lentil.
These approaches are examined under the different various climate scenarios to evaluate their ability to adapt to expected yield reduction. Preliminary results suggest that adjusting sowing dates and altering crop rotations can significantly impact yield, yield stability, and overall agricultural sustainability (in terms of water and nutrient use efficiency). Notably, crops planted in autumn, particularly within sustainable rotations, show promise in adapting to these shifts, potentially resulting in more stable yields and environmental benefits.
Our research seeks to provide Italian farmers with actionable insights, helping them adjust sowing dates and management practices to maintain sustainable legume production under the challenges posed by climate change. Moreover, this study proposes a model that could be extended to other regions and crops, enhancing our comprehension of agricultural adaptation strategies in response to climate change.
(1) Ahmed, M., Sameen, A., Parveen, H., Ullah, M.I., Fahad, S., Hayat, R. (2022). Climate Change Impacts on Legume Crop Production and Adaptation Strategies. In: Ahmed, M. (eds) Global Agricultural Production: Resilience to Climate Change . Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-14973-3_5
(2) C. Nendel, M. Berg, K.C. Kersebaum, W. Mirschel, X. Specka, M. Wegehenkel, K.O. Wenkel, R. Wieland, The MONICA model: Testing predictability for crop growth, soil moisture and nitrogen dynamics, Ecological Modelling, Volume 222, Issue 9, 2011, Pages 1614-1625, ISSN 0304-3800,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.02.018.
| Keywords | climate change; legumes; resource efficiency; yield stability; |
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