18th Congress of the European Society for Agronomy

Rye in a changing climate: insights from crop modelling in key northern hemisphere regions utilizing DSSAT-CSM-CERES-Rye

Aug 30, 2024, 9:45 AM

15m

Salle 14 (1st floor) (The Couvent des Jacobins)

Oral Synergies between short- and long-term goals Climate change adaptation and mitigation

Speaker

Mr Ashifur Rahman Shawon (Julius Kühn Institute (JKI) – Federal Research Centre for Cultivated Plants, Institute for Strategies and Technology Assessment)

Description

Introduction

Process-based crop models are helpful tools in studying genotype × environment × management (G × E × M) interactions in agriculture (Boote et al., 2013). With climate change (CC) threatening global food security through increased droughts, higher temperatures, and altered precipitation patterns, understanding its potential effects on crop production is crucial (Challinor et al., 2014). Crop modeling is pivotal for exploring adaptation measures to CC challenges (Asseng et al., 2015). This study focuses on rye, a promising crop in temperate regions due to its high resource use efficiency, adaptability to drought and frost conditions, and low input requirements. Assessing rye production under current and future climatic conditions is essential for adapting cereal production in key northern hemisphere regions. Our research aims to provide insights into the potential impact of CC on rye production, utilizing the adapted DSSAT-CSM-CERES-Rye model to evaluate its effects on crop yields and identify adaptation strategies (Shawon et al., 2022). Additionally, this study enhances understanding of rye's resilience and adaptability under changing climatic conditions, supporting the development of sustainable agricultural practices amidst CC challenges.

Materials and Methods

In this study, the LARS-WG6 stochastic downscaling model (Semenov et al., 2002) was used to generate future climate data, calibrated and validated with historical climate data from 1985 to 2020 across multiple locations: Bohnhausen (Germany), Jogeva (Estonia), Jokioinen (Finland), Raasdorf (Austria), Choryn (Poland), and Lethbridge (Canada). Daily climate variables were simulated at these locations by leveraging the statistical characteristics of observed climate data, with interpolation for ungauged locations conducted using the inverse distance weighting method. Weather generator parameters from two global climate models (GISS-E2-R-CC and HadGEM2-ES) were applied under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The impact of climate change on rye production was evaluated using the CSM-CERES-Rye model, which simulated critical crop characteristics, including phenology, growth, and yield. Simulations covered three time periods: the base period (2001-2020), mid-century (2031-2050), and end-century (2081-2100), providing a comprehensive assessment of rye production under various climate change scenarios throughout the 21st century.

Results and discussion

The study evaluated projected changes in crop yields under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for selected sites (Figure 1). Results revealed that by mid-century, RCP4.5 was anticipated to yield an increase ranging from 8% to 48%, while RCP8.5 exhibited a larger increase ranging from 38% to 87%. Similarly, by end-century, RCP4.5 was projected to yield an increase ranging from 14% to 60%, while RCP8.5 was expected to yield an increase ranging from 43% to 93%, taking into account CO2 fertilization. Further analysis of location-specific data may unveil interesting disparities in projected yield changes. Additionally, it's noteworthy that future rye production in the northern hemisphere could potentially benefit from ongoing climate change due to an elongated growing season and increased CO2 concentration.

References

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3. Challinor, Andrew J., et al. "A meta-analysis of crop yield under
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   287-291.
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5. Semenov, Mikhail A., Elaine M. Barrow, and A. Lars-Wg. "A stochastic
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6. Shawon, Ashifur R., et al. "Adapting the CERES model to simulate
   growth and production of cereal rye." Julius-Kühn-Archiv 471 (2022).