18th Congress of the European Society for Agronomy

Future change in soil organic carbon and wheat yield under different climate change projections and agricultural managements in semi-arid Iran

Not scheduled

15m

Les Dortoirs (1st floor) (The Couvent des Jacobins)

Poster Synergies between short- and long-term goals Poster session #1

Speaker

Aram Gorooei (University of BonnInstitute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES))

Description

Arable land plays a key role in the sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC). SOC is an important contributor in soil quality and hence crop productivity. In southwestern Iran, SOC levels are low due to climatic conditions and agricultural practices, and are likely to be affected by climate change. In this study we used the calibrated and validated model called MONICA to assess the impacts of two Shared Socio-economic Pathways SSP245 (480 ppm) and SSP585 (600 ppm) on future (2030 to 2060) changes in yield, ABG, crop cycle length and SOC for a maize-wheat rotation as the most common cropping system in the region under three agricultural strategies: Conventional (CON), where all inputs were inorganic and all crop residues were removed after harvest; Organic (ORG), where only organic fertilizer was applied and 30% of crop residues were returned to the soil; Integrated (INT), where a combination of inorganic and organic fertilizer was applied and 15% of crop residues were returned to the soil. The model was run for the regions of Ahvaz in the south-west and Torbat-Heydareye in the north-east of Iran. The results indicated that projected grain yield and AGB of wheat and projected SOC were affected by elevated CO2 and increased temperature. Future wheat yield and AGB were significantly reduced in Ahvaz and partially increased in Torbat-Heydareye under SSP245 and SSP585 compared to the baseline. Although future SOC tend to improve in Torbat-Heydareye for the organic-based agricultural strategies (ORG and INT), it tends to decrease in Ahvaz in the climate change scenarios. The conventional (CON) strategy was more sensitive to climate change than the organic-based strategies in terms of future SOC and yield in Ahvaz and AGB and SOC in Torbat-Heydareye. This study emphasizes the importance of assessing the impact of climate change on different agricultural strategies on a regional scale in order to define climate change adaptation measures in semi-arid regions in Asia.