Speaker
Description
Over the past decades, the demand for plant-based proteins has steadily increased, especially to support animal-based proteins, leading to a strong dependence of European countries towards foreign producers. In a context of transitioning food system through more reliance on food security, reduction of meat consumption or more plant-based diet, legume crops appear as a promising solution. These kinds of crops have the remarkable ability to fix atmospheric nitrogen, thus reducing reliance on fossil-based fertilizers, promoting soil health and fertility, mitigating risks associated with intensive monocultures, and preserving biodiversity. Faba beans and peas are the two most cultivated legumes in Europe (Falconnier et al., 2020), and in Belgium. However, these crops are strongly impacted by climatic hazards such as heat and water stress, leading to the necessity of exploring their potential under the effects of global warming.
Using statistical and process-based models, historic Belgian data regarding faba beans and peas yields and climatic conditions were used to study the potential of those crops and project yields under different climate scenarios in the near and distant future, with moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) warming scenarios (Calvin et al., 2023). To approach the crop ecophysiology, yield estimates were calculated from yield components (i.e., grain number and thousand kernel weight) derived from predictive models using climatic indicators such as temperature variables (e.g., averages, maximums or number of frost and hot days), water-related variables (e.g., cumulative rainfall, number of rainy days, evapotranspiration or water deficit) or even solar radiations. Key development periods based on species-specific cumulative degree-days were calculated, with the aim of determining each yield component. Grain number was defined using climatic indicators calculated between emergence to early flowering and between early to late flowering and thousand kernel weight between late flowering to maturity (Lake et al., 2019).
The results highlighted the significant influence of climatic indicators on yield components. Moreover, our study emphasized the potential of exploiting differences between species able to adapt to such climatic conditions. For example, according to various statistical models, spring pea yield predictions tend to decrease by the year 2100 under both moderate and high warming scenarios. Furthermore, most simulations carried out in various studies on the impact of climate change on yields generally indicate yield increases for legumes in northern countries, particularly for winter crops (Manners et al., 2020; Marteau-Bazouni et al., 2024).
However, with such models, it is important to note that gaps persist in our understanding of the effects of climate change, such as the impact of increased in CO2 on photosynthesis, as well as the influence of climate change on disease, pest, and weeds, and consequently on achievable yield (Marteau-Bazouni et al., 2024). Additionally, it is essential to recognize that yield potential also depends on the choice of cultivars adapted to climate change, as well as on soil type, which is not yet accounted for in our models. Not to mention the limitations of statistical models such as projections formulation that do not go beyond the data used for training (Guilpart et al., 2022). While our models already account for the CO2 effect on evapotranspiration (M. G. Jadhav et al., 2021), our approach would benefit to be completed with a process-based modelling approach that would simulate the impact of CO2, heat, and drought on yield and nitrogen fixation of these seed legumes (Falconnier et al., 2020).
Acknowledgment:
This research work is made possible thanks to the WAL'PROT project, financed by the European Union and the Walloon Region with the European Funds for Regional Development 2021-2027.
References:
Calvin et al (2023). Intergovernmental Panel on Climat Change (IPCC). https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647
Falconnier et al. (2020). Field Crops Research, 259, 107967. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2020.107967
Guilpart et al (2022). Nature Food, 3(4), Article 4.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00481-3
Lake et al (2019). Field Crops Research, 241, 107575.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2019.107575
M. G. Jadhav et al (2021). International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences, 10(11), 387 396. https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2021.1011.044
Manners et al (2020). European Journal of Agronomy, 113, 125974. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2019.125974
Marteau-Bazouni et al (2024). European Journal of Agronomy, 153, 127056. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2023.127056
| Keywords | protein;legumes:climate change;yield components |
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